The oil price is also a big risk, mainly because the Bush administration appears determined to attack Iraq. The probability of war could easily push the oil price back into the $ 35 ~ $ 40 a barrel range for at least a few months. In effect, that would impose a big new tax on consumer spending and corporate profits. The prospect of monetary tightening and a sharp increase in the oil price suggests that late 2002 and early 2003 could be a period of great volatility for the US economy.